Long-term trends and pathways

Outside of Africa, climate change is often seen as the dominant long-term trend of transformation on the continent. The IPCC reports have repeatedly warned of its devastating effects, presenting Africa as the most severely affected continent, with a low capacity to adapt (Niang et al. 2014). Climate change goes along with changing precipitation patterns, less rainfall, longer periods of drought, land degradation, and lower yields. These effects are already clearly visible all over Sub-Saharan Africa, and especially in rural areas, where it is feared that climate change will exacerbate the degree of vulnerability and poverty.

The contribution by Opondo et al. (this volume) shows how the effects of climate change intersect with the local livelihoods of pastoralists in northern Kenya. Frequency and severity of droughts have increased over the past decades, repeatedly causing famine and calling for international relief interventions. The paper argues that extreme climate events are particularly harmful for women, and that they therefore tend to aggravate the gender imbalance. Climate change forces people to apply short-term coping mechanisms with harmful effects on the environment like overgrazing or deforestation. The study addresses a question that is indeed very important for an understanding of future-making under such precarious conditions and the impact of long-term trends. The question is whether people are passive victims of long-term trends, or whether they have the capacity to actively adapt, choose appropriate response strategies, and influence future conditions in their own interest. The study by Opondo et al. observes that the answer to this question is not an either-or, but rather that the response to the detrimental impacts of climate change encompasses a wide range of practices, some of them rather harmful for the environment, but others opening up new opportunities and the development of alternative livelihoods.

The second megatrend is related to demography. Population growth rates have been much commented upon (Linard et al. 2013), but demographic changes do not only pertain to population growth. Africa is rapidly urbanizing. Recent estimates indicate that half of Africa’s population is expected to be urban by 2030, and by 2050 the estimate rises to 60 per cent1 Press release of the African Union on September 4, 2024, https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20240904/africa-urban-forum-co-creating-solutions-make-cities-habitable-growing [Accessed 18.12.2024]. Despite the associated structural challenges, Africa’s futures are increasingly urban. African policymakers and economists see urbanization as an opportunity for realization of the AU Agenda 2063, promoting continental integration in the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area, which brings together 55 countries in the AU and eight Regional Economic Communities. This integration sets forth an African economic powerhouse that is expected to redefine trade and compete with the rest of the world. The Agenda envisions African cities as being hubs of economic and cultural activities that ultimately contribute to the prosperity of the continent.

Rural areas are equally central in realizing the visions of a better future for Africa. Rural areas provide the needed space for mega infrastructure installations such as geothermal, wind power, and hydro schemes, which drive urban growth. The promises of megaprojects may sometimes be misleading, but people see them as ‘beacons of hope’ (Müller-Mahn et al. 2021). Greiner et al. (this volume) show how energy transitions and related infrastructure reconfigure African landscapes. Geothermal energy exploitation and power from Africa’s largest wind-energy park in arid northern Turkana make Kenya a forerunner in energy transition. The rural landscapes here act as sacrifice landscapes that provide the energy for Kenya’s rapidly growing economy. Furthermore, Africa’s rural areas are increasingly experiencing the positive externalities associated with the spread of infrastructure and better services including physical and social infrastructure and ICT, which create opportunities for rural people, as aptly described by Guma (this volume). Ultimately, these notions of modernity shape the visions and aspirations of people living in the rural areas of Africa, just as they do for the rest of the world.

African futures are also linked to the rapid growth of the youth population in both rural and urban areas. African youth are considered a fundamental resource capable of unlocking the continent’s potential, while still contributing to the universal labour force. In his book, ‘Youthquake: Why African Demography Should Matter to the World’, Edward Paice (2021) opens up the critical debate on the relationship between population growth and the developmental prospects of Africa by rejecting the predicted apocalyptic scenarios and doom-laden prophecies for the continent and considers the influence and action of the youth for Africa and the world. The ‘African youthquake’ presents an opportunity and a valuable resource for Africa and the world, and as such should demand the world’s attention.