The power of visions
One cross-cutting theme in the contributions to this book is the question of to what extent future-making practices are influenced by shared imaginations, ‘fictional expectations’ (Beckert 2016), and the power of visions and their impact on political action in the present. The relevance of this question becomes visible with a look at the national development plans most countries in Africa use as long-term guidelines for national policies. Kenya’s ‘Vision 2030’, for example, explicitly aims at transforming the country into a middle-income country, following a vision of modernist development (see contribution of Kioko et al. this volume). Kenya’s policies and investment in infrastructure are directly linked to this vision, as Greiner et al. (this volume) show for Kenya’s energy sector. Vehrs and Bollig argue that visions of future wildernesses in conservation landscapes prompt philanthropists and powerful international conservationist NGOs to invest in conservation activities and directly contribute to social-ecological transformation. The African Union (AU), as the overarching political organization of the continent, initiated its Agenda 2063 in 2013 as a strategic framework to achieve inclusive economic development over the coming 50 years (African Union 2014). Its goals explicitly refer to the sustainable development goals of the United Nations and combine them with the endeavour to improve human well-being and sustainable livelihoods. This includes the eradication of poverty, political integration, a strengthening of African cultures and identities through an ‘African Renaissance’, the establishment of justice, peace, and security in all parts of the continent, and liberation from foreign dominance. The goals of Agenda 2063 have been translated into 15 flagship projects, which are meant to give a big push to the economic and social development of the continent, including the construction of a high-speed train network, the establishment of a common free-trade zone, and several large infrastructure programs. To what extent the ambitious goals of the Agenda 2063 will realistically be achieved remains questionable, as the year 2063 is still far away.
As Revilla-Diez et al. (this volume) show, one of the tools of achieving the great visions expressed in the ambitious national development plans is the building of growth corridors linking rural peripheries to the growth poles of harbours and metropolitan areas. These infrastructure megaprojects are driven by modernist visions of economic growth and spatial development. The corridors may therefore be considered as perfect representations of what Jasanoff and Kim (2015) called ‘dreamscapes of modernity’ (Müller-Mahn 2020). However, as Revilla-Diez et al. (this volume) point out, the reality of these spatial development initiatives is often quite different from what had been envisioned. The concept of corridor-based development clearly has a colonial legacy, dating back to colonial times, when the colonial powers used roads and railways to gain control over the vast territories they had conquered and to organize the exploitation of resource-rich regions and their inhabitants (Griffiths 1997). Up until today, the coloniality of these large infrastructure projects remains obvious (Aalders 2020; Enns and Bersaglio 2019, Jackson 2025). Corridors continue to be entry points of powerful external actors, as the contribution of Revilla-Diez et al. (this volume) shows: they connect rural hinterlands to value chains and the wider world, but not to the benefit of all people concerned and certainly not to the benefit of small-scale producers in rural areas.
The belief in technological approaches has been characteristic of agricultural development initiatives for decades, and it also informs the visions of agricultural futures today, as Matejcek et al. (this volume) show in a case study of mobile-phone applications for agricultural extension services in Tanzania. However, the use of mobile phones to send SMS messages with weather forecasts and technical advice to farmers in distant parts of the country may sometimes miss the reality on the ground, because the advisors do not sufficiently know the local situation.
A very different example is the introduction of index-based livestock insurances in Northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia (Scoones et al. this volume). They show that this finance-technical instrument creates an imaginary of a future that can be anticipated and managed, and where risks are under control. This approach helps to mitigate the intrinsic uncertainties of livestock production under the unpredictable conditions of pastoralism, but as it is not available for all pastoralists, it exacerbates existing inequalities.