Study Area

The county is characterized by episodic short-duration bouts of extreme rainfall often resulting in flash floods. The surface runoff and potential evaporation rates are incredibly high. Spatially, the rains are distributed generally along a south-north gradient, with more rain in the northern parts and other areas of higher elevation (Maps 8.2). During the MAM season, the rains are more intense in the northern and southern parts of the county, but the central regions are dry (Map 8.2(a)). A similar pattern is observed during the OND season. However, during this season, the drier areas push further to the north and south leaving only a small strip to the north, west and extreme south receiving relatively high amounts of rainfall (Map 8.2(b)). Observations show that the current seasonal rainfall is low, highly variable, and unpredictable over the county, with MAM and OND seasons showing decreasing and increasing trends respectively for the period 1950–2012. The JJA season also shows a slight increasing trend in the rainfall. However, these trends are not statistically significant. The studies also indicate that the increasing trend in annual rainfall for the same period is not statistically significant. The statistical insignificance shows that the observed trends are not real and may be the result of random variability in the rainfall. However, significant steady warming patterns have been evident in both maximum and minimum temperatures (Kilavi 2008, Opiyo et al. 2014).

The Horn of Africa region1 The Horn of Africa comprises Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. is facing something of a climate paradox during the main MAM season, with an observed decrease in rainfall but an increase shown in the climate-model projections for the future (Shongwe et al. 2011, Mölg and Pickler 2022). The region has been experiencing an increased frequency of drought that has triggered frequent humanitarian crises, prompting major international responses (Table 8.1) (FEWSNET 2022). However, the observed ‘short rains’ of the OND season have shown a weak upward trend over the past three decades (Liebmann et al. 2014) with a similar increase projected for the future. Similarly, simulated precipitation for different climate-change scenarios shows increases in the annual and seasonal totals over the Turkana region (Mxolisi et al. 2011).

Significant changes in climate extremes are generally apparent in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya, and particularly in Turkana County. The county is experiencing an increased frequency of droughts, which have had profound impacts on the county’s economy and the people’s well-being (Funk et al. 2019). In the last three decades the frequency and severity of climate extreme events in Turkana, and particularly of drought incidences, has increased significantly (Table 8.1). After the severe drought and famine episodes of the 1970s and 1980s, it took nearly three decades for the next devastating drought to occur in 2011. This was followed within a decade, in 2022,2 This is attributed to a combination of anthropogenic warming, Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures, and La Niña together contributing to four consecutive dry rainy seasons, which is unprecedented in the 70-year precipitation record for the Horn of Africa (NASA’s Earth Observatory). by the next-worst drought to hit Turkana, with the situation yet to be contained in 2023. Indeed, since 2016 Turkana has continued to experience perennial droughts, which are made worse by occasional flash floods (Table 8.1). Besides the negative effects on pasture and water sources, droughts have also led to massive loss of livestock, thereby compromising the resilience and adaptive capacity of the community since the people rely predominantly on pastoralism as their source of livelihood (TCG 2020). In addition, droughts in the region are associated with cross-border conflicts between neighbouring communities over scarce resources, especially water and pasture (Heiret 2020).

Turkana also experiences flooding episodes resulting in flash floods as a result of extreme rainfall events, albeit at a much lower frequency compared to droughts, but which nonetheless result in massive loss of lives and livestock. The county suffers river flooding on the Turkwel, Kerio, and Kawalase Rivers, occasioned by rainfall in the basins, which extend far north into West Pokot and Mount Elgon areas, and flash floods from episodic extreme rainfall events within the county. Indeed, climate-change simulations project a marked increase in rainfall over the region, and therefore flooding is likely to be become more frequent in the future, increasing the vulnerability of the already marginalized communities (UNEP 2021). The future of rural communities in Turkana is closely tied to their ability to adapt to climate change.

As a result of land-use changes arising out of socio-economic activities in the urbanized parts of the county such as in Lodwar Town, the impacts of flash floods have been more severe and have led to the loss of livestock, lives, property and displacement of people (Table 8.1) (Achoke 2020). Rainfall may cause more acute and severe problems than dry spells, because the rapid onset of flash flooding, as well as the relative rarity of such events, means that the population and authorities are less prepared to deal with the consequences (Haines et al. 2017). In October 2019, the entire Lodwar Town in Turkana Central, with a population of 70,000 people, was left vulnerable to water insecurity due to flooding that destroyed the boreholes supplying water to the community, while over 5000 people were displaced by the floods (Figure 8.1). Furthermore, flooding incidences have always affected transport and in extreme cases led to the loss of lives in this region.